PROPHET EDGE™ DAILY BOARDSAT SEP 26, 2026 · SATURDAY REFRESH · 8:45 AM CT · FIRST KICKOFF 11:00 AM CT · RELEASED EXPOSURE 0.00U · OFFICIAL LOCK: NO RELEASES — 16 CANDIDATES, 2 MODEL CONFLICTS

INSIGHT HUSTLERPROPHET EDGE V7.6RSAT 8:45 AM CT · WEEK 4 BOARD LIVE — FIRST KICKOFF 11:00 AM CT

THE WEEKEND BOARD

SATURDAY COMMAND CENTER — WEEK 4 FULL-CARD NCAAF DEEP DIVE (70 GAMES) + FRIDAY MLB CARD

Two Prophet Edge v7.6R boards merged into a single landing surface: Friday’s 17-game MLB card and the Week 4 full-card college football deep dive, where all 70 FBS games — five Friday and 65 Saturday — now carry an individual matchup read, a process-confidence score, a CFBD line snapshot, an SP+ projection, PredictionTracker support where it exists, CFBD Weeks 1–3 efficiency and the reviewed newsletter note.

SATURDAY · SEP 26 · LIVE BOARD

70FBS GAMES · FRI + SAT

Four kickoff windows · 65 Saturday games read · 16 candidates, 5 provisional

HEADLINE READ

Illinois +26.5 at Ohio State

SP+ makes Ohio State 21.1 better while the market asks 26.8, and 35 of 40 PredictionTracker rows cover Illinois — the largest model/market gap on the board.

ILLINOIS +26.5/+27VANDERBILT +9.5PENN STATE -10TEXAS A&M +7.5/+8.5IOWA +5.5

FRIDAY · SEP 25 · CARD SETTLED

17MLB GAMES

1 price-qualified position · 1 conditional watch · 5 NCAAF reads

HEADLINE READ

Houston–Athletics Over 8.5

Sutter Health Park’s wind-out day game is the cleanest total on the card. All MLB plays provisional — Ballpark Pal lineups still unconfirmed.

NAVY -6.5 (CONDITIONAL)CARDINALS +161 VALUEN’WESTERN +21 — NO CLEARLINEUPS FINAL: NO

BOTTOM LINE — No official release on either board yet. Friday’s MLB card is gated by unconfirmed lineups and the unavailable capper layer; the Week 4 college deep dive reads all 70 FBS games but releases nothing — five provisional candidates (Illinois, Vanderbilt, Penn State, Texas A&M, Iowa) still require an exact book quote with a timestamp, final availability and a last price check. The CFBD SP+ gate is now satisfied, which independently confirms four of the five and exposes two direct model conflicts — Ole Miss–Florida and Oklahoma State–West Virginia — where SP+ and PredictionTracker point opposite ways. Confidence scores are process ratings — not win probabilities.

BOARD ONE · SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26

WEEK 4 FULL-CARD NCAAF DEEP DIVE — 65 SATURDAY GAMES

Every Saturday game carries a current CFBD line, an SP+ projection, PredictionTracker support where available, CFBD Weeks 1–3 efficiency and the reviewed newsletter note. The CFBD SP+ gate is now satisfied and the tracker reports 40 models per game. This is a discovery board, not a betting card — final releases follow today’s availability, price and weather refresh.

CURRENT TOP CANDIDATE BOARD — WEEK 4 FULL-CARD DEEP DIVE

RANK	CANDIDATE	CURRENT LINE	CONF.	STATUS	BUY TO / PASS
1	Illinois at Ohio State ⚠ Largest model/market gap on the board — SP+ Ohio State by 21.1 vs market 26.8, a 5.4-point cushion; 35/40 PT rows agree	Illinois +26.5/+27	63	TOP CANDIDATE	At or better than current market; otherwise pass
2	Vanderbilt at Auburn ⚠ SP+ makes Auburn only 4.4 better, so Auburn can win outright and Vanderbilt still covers +9.5 — the apparent win/cover conflict dissolves; 38/40 PT rows and both newsletters on the dog	Vanderbilt +9.5	63	TOP CANDIDATE	At or better than current market; otherwise pass
3	Wisconsin at Penn State ⚠ SP+ projects Penn State by 16.5 against a market of 10 — the only favorite-side read with agreement on both the winner (40/40) and the cover (37/40); roster check still required	Penn State -10	63	TOP CANDIDATE	Current price must match or improve; no chase
4	Texas A&M at LSU ⚠ SP+ makes LSU only 4.4 better against a market near -8; 38/40 PT rows on the dog. Terry Bussey out for the season — the receiver room is the open question	Texas A&M +7.5/+8.5	62	TOP CANDIDATE	At or better than current market; otherwise pass
5	Iowa at Michigan ⚠ SP+ makes Michigan only 0.3 better against a market of 5.5; 31/40 PT rows on Iowa. Two service plays on TheRX backed Iowa +5.5	Iowa +5.5	61	TOP CANDIDATE	At or better than current market; otherwise pass
6	New Mexico at New Mexico State	New Mexico -11/-11.5	60	CANDIDATE	Current price must match or improve; no chase
7	Missouri State at SMU ⚠ FCS opponent and roster mismatch widen model uncertainty	Missouri State +34.5	60	CANDIDATE	At or better than current market; otherwise pass
8	Rice at Fresno State ⚠ Bondi lists Rice +13.5 against the model side	Fresno State -13/-13.5	60	CANDIDATE	Current price must match or improve; no chase
9	Georgia Tech at Stanford	Georgia Tech -3.5/-3	60	CANDIDATE	Current price must match or improve; no chase
10	Connecticut at Miami-OH ⚠ 78% of PT rows on the dog	UConn +3.5	59	CANDIDATE	At or better than current market; otherwise pass
11	Kansas State at Cincinnati	Cincinnati +6.5	59	CANDIDATE	At or better than current market; otherwise pass
12	Air Force at Nevada ⚠ PT mean flips this to Nevada by 1.6; wind at altitude favours the dog	Nevada +5.5	58	CANDIDATE	At or better than current market; otherwise pass
13	Kennesaw State at Arkansas State	Kennesaw State +6.5	58	CANDIDATE	At or better than current market; otherwise pass
14	Oklahoma at Georgia ⚠ Red Sheet sits on Georgia at the same number SP+ projects	Oklahoma +13.5	58	CANDIDATE	At or better than current market; otherwise pass
15	James Madison at Old Dominion ⚠ Wind is the total question — 14 mph vs 30–38 mph gusts; recheck before the Under	JMU -6	58	CANDIDATE	Current price must match or improve; no chase
16	Oklahoma State at West Virginia ⚠ SP+ makes Oklahoma State 2.4 better and Capper Insights took Oklahoma State +2.5; 35/40 PT rows take West Virginia on both the winner and the spread	Oklahoma State +1.5/+2 (WVU -1.5/-2)	50	MODEL CONFLICT	No bet until the conflict resolves

Process-confidence scores, not win probabilities. Every row is a candidate, not a released play: the deep dive requires an exact book quote with a timestamp, final availability and a last price check before any of these becomes actionable. Prices are CFBD exporter snapshots and may not equal your sportsbook. PredictionTracker now reports 40 model projections per game; its ATS counts are direction tallies, not probabilities.

NEWSLETTER CROSS-CHECK — WEEK 4 REVIEW (FRIDAY AFTERNOON CT)

Red Sheet Week 4 — Straight and spread selections by game; supplies the Tennessee, Utah, Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Oregon and JMU reads.

Power Plays / Pick Six PLUS — Adds Game Grader and opponent-adjusted stats; flags the Northwestern second-half fade and the UCF quarterback question.

Gridiron Gold Sheet College Week 4 — Dennis Stagliano weekly best-bets sheet, spread-driven picks.

Bondi Bulletin — Harry Bondi weekly best-bets sheet, spread-driven picks.

Pointwise, Power Sweep, Powers Ratings — Weekly rating and selection sheets; Pointwise supplies the JMU rating referenced below.

Illinois at Ohio State

No newsletter pick found. SP+ makes Ohio State 21.1 while the market asks 26.8 and 35/40 PT rows cover Illinois — a pure model/market disagreement, not a publication-backed play.

Ole Miss at Florida

SP+ makes Florida 4.7 better than the market price of 3.5, so the model edge sits on the favorite while 33/40 PT rows take Ole Miss +3.5 and the outright picks split 20–20. Capper Insights and TheRX both leaned Florida. Three layers, two directions — pass.

Oklahoma State at West Virginia

SP+ makes Oklahoma State 2.4 better and Capper Insights took Oklahoma State +2.5, while 35/40 PT rows take West Virginia on both the winner and the spread. Model families point opposite ways at a near-pick’em price.

USF at Bowling Green

The CFBD line closes the gap here: SP+ makes USF 21.4 better against a market of 17.5 and 32/40 PT rows agree, so the favorite finally clears its number rather than sitting on an unverified spread.

Wisconsin at Penn State

Red Sheet backs Penn State and 93% of PT rows agree, but the market at -10 is a full touchdown below the SP+ projection — the cushion is real, the roster check is still outstanding.

Colorado State at UTSA

Bondi lists UTSA -13 while SP+ makes UTSA only 7.8 better. Market exceeds the projection by about five; no chase on the favorite.

Rice at Fresno State

Bondi lists Rice +13.5 while SP+ makes Fresno State 16.9 better and 78% of PT rows take the favorite. Publication and model point opposite ways.

San Diego State at Toledo

Gold Sheet lists Toledo -3 while SP+ makes the game a pick’em and PT rows lean Toledo 26/41. Model and publication strength do not match.

Oregon at USC

Red Sheet backs Oregon, CBS’s computer pick is USC +3, SP+ makes it a pick’em and 63% of PT rows take USC. A genuine split.

Nebraska at Michigan State

Bondi lists Michigan State +5.5 against a clear SP+ Nebraska favorite, and PT rows conflict 26/41 the other way. Price-check only.

James Madison at Old Dominion

Red Sheet 89, Pointwise 5 and Power Plays Strong all align on JMU, matching the CFBD efficiency read. Wind is the unresolved variable and it argues Under 44.5, not a side.

No newsletter was excluded from the Week 4 review. The Pointwise September 26 file was re-verified this week and is included for the JMU rating.

STILL OUTSTANDING

• No CapperInsights consensus was included — it populates on game day by design.

• X/Twitter material is treated as a lead only. The purported Muschamp 5–0 claim was not treated as evidence because the attribution is not established.

• No exact user-book quote with a timestamp was supplied, so every position stays baseline/watch rather than released.

• SRS returned no Week 4 records, so that model family stays unavailable and only SP+ and PredictionTracker carry numeric weight.

• CFBD lines are a single book and do not always match live prices — Texas–Tennessee is -5.5 in CFBD against -4.5 live.

Newsletter picks are attributed individually rather than averaged into model predictions. The full 70-game card is a discovery board, not a betting card, until these conflicts and prices are rechecked against Saturday availability.

BINDING CONTINUITY

ESTABLISHED BASELINE — PRESERVED

Illinois +26.5/+27Vanderbilt +9.5Penn State -10Texas A&M +7.5/+8.5Iowa +5.5

SHARP-MONEY SIDES HANK POSTED — MARKET SIGNAL, NOT HIS OWN PLAYS

Texas -3.5Maryland +2Florida -3Utah -7.5Michigan -4.5LSU -8.5USC +3Stanford +4

These are sharp-money bets Hank posted on X, not selections he published as his own plays. Treat them as a market signal that informs price and side reads — not as a tail and not as a veto.

Preserve the established baseline. Current prices worse than the baseline are not silently upgraded — existing tickets can be held, but new buyers follow the stated gates.

The sharp-money list Hank posted on X is carried forward as a market signal only. It is not an automatic tail and it does not veto the opposite side. The "never bet against Hank" veto applies only when he explicitly posts a play as his own.

Same-game derivatives share one exposure cap. No stacking full-game, first-half and first-quarter bets without an explicit portfolio decision.

Do not convert a strong favorite win projection into an ATS bet without a price edge. Several SP+ rows show likely winners with no spread value.

WINDOW LEADERS AT A GLANCE

11 AM–1:00 PMIllinois +26.5/+27 — 63 · Maryland +1.5 — 57 · Wake Forest +13.5 — 57

2–4:00 PMVanderbilt +9.5 — 63 · Penn State -10 — 63 · Iowa +5.5 — 61

5–7:00 PMTexas A&M +7.5/+8.5 — 62 · Cincinnati +6.5 — 59 · Kennesaw State +6.5 — 58

8 PM and laterMissouri State +34.5 — 60 · Fresno State -13/-13.5 — 60 · Georgia Tech -3.5/-3 — 60

The five provisional candidates sit on a model-versus-market gap rather than a publication consensus. Illinois and Vanderbilt are dog-side disagreements, Penn State is a favorite the market has priced a full touchdown below its SP+ projection, and Texas A&M and Iowa are PredictionTracker-led dog reads. Those are candidate edges to recheck, not automatic releases. Two games sit in direct conflict rather than on a gap — Ole Miss–Florida, where SP+ and both capper sources lean Florida against 33/40 tracker rows on Ole Miss, and Oklahoma State–West Virginia, where SP+ and Capper Insights take Oklahoma State against 35/40 tracker rows on West Virginia.

11:00 AM – 1:00 PM CT WINDOW16 GAMES

CT	MATCHUP	MARKET	BEST CURRENT READ	CONF.	EVIDENCE / RULING
11:00	Ball State at Kent State	KENT -3 / 50.5–51	No bet at -3	46	SP+ Kent State by 2.0 (27-25), edge -1.0; PT unavailable. CFBD Weeks 1–3 profile fairly even. No reviewed newsletter pick.
11:00	Bucknell at Pittsburgh	PITT -53.5 / 63.5	Pittsburgh -53.5, no chase	47	SP+ Pittsburgh by 57.6 (58-0), edge +4.1; PT unavailable; CFBD split unavailable. Extreme FCS spread and substitution variance cap the grade.
11:00	Colorado at Baylor	BAY -9.5 / 55.5	Baylor -9.5, no chase	57	SP+ Baylor by 10.6 (32-22), edge +1.1; PT mean +11.3 / median +11.6, SD 3.2; PT rows 27/41 Baylor (66%).
11:00	Colorado State at UTSA	UTSA -14 / 56.5	Colorado State +14	48	SP+ UTSA by 7.8 (31-23), edge -6.2; PT unavailable. CSU leads early in offensive PPA and explosiveness. Bondi lists UTSA -13 — market exceeds SP+ by about five.
11:00	Illinois at Ohio State	OSU -26.5 (DK) / -27 (Bovada) / 53.5–54	Illinois +26.5/+27	63	SP+ Ohio State by 21.1 (37-16), edge -5.6; PT mean +21.6 / median +22.5, SD 5.2; PT rows 35/40 Illinois (88%). Largest model/market gap on the board.
11:00	Sam Houston at Texas Tech	TTU -34.5 / 55.5–56	Texas Tech -34.5, no chase	47	SP+ Texas Tech by 37.2 (45-8), edge +2.7; PT unavailable. CFBD efficiency profile fairly even.
11:00	San Diego State at Toledo	TOL -3 / 51.5	San Diego State +3, no chase	50	SP+ San Diego State by 0.5 (24-24), edge -3.5; PT mean +4.7 / median +5.4, SD 5.1; PT rows conflict 26/41 Toledo (63%). Gold Sheet lists Toledo -3 — model and publication do not match.
11:00	Texas at Tennessee	TEX -4.5 (DK) / -5 (Bovada) / 54.5–55	Tennessee +4.5/+5	56	SP+ Texas by 1.4 (29-28), edge +3.4; PT mean -4.7 / median -4.3, SD 3.2; PT rows 24/41 Tennessee (59%). Red Sheet lists Tennessee +5.5. Tennessee leads early in offensive PPA.
11:00	UNLV at Akron	UNLV -13.5 / 52.5–53	Akron +13.5	51	SP+ UNLV by 15.0 (33-18), edge -1.5; PT mean -8.2 / median -9.0, SD 7.2; PT rows 30/41 Akron (73%).
11:00	Virginia Tech at Boston College	VT -14 / 47–47.5	No bet at -14	48	SP+ Virginia Tech by 14.7 (34-19), edge -0.7; PT mean -13.1 / median -11.9, SD 6.5; PT rows 24/41 Boston College (59%). VT leads early in offensive PPA and success rate.
11:00	Wake Forest at Louisville	LOU -13.5 (DK) / -13 (Bovada) / 57–57.5	Wake Forest +13.5	57	SP+ Louisville by 12.2 (32-20), edge -1.1; PT mean +11.8 / median +12.6, SD 3.8; PT rows 31/40 Wake Forest (78%). Louisville leads early in offensive PPA.
11:45	South Alabama at Kentucky	UK -20.5 / 54.5	No bet at -20.5	48	SP+ Kentucky by 21.1 (38-17), edge +0.6; PT mean +19.4 / median +19.4, SD 6.0; PT rows 24/41 South Alabama (59%). CFBD profile fairly even.
12:00	Lindenwood at Eastern Michigan	EMU -25.5 / 51.5	Lindenwood +25.5	47	SP+ Eastern Michigan by 22.7 (38-15), edge -2.8; PT unavailable; CFBD split unavailable.
12:30	UCLA at Maryland	UCLA -1.5 / 56.5	Maryland +1.5	57	SP+ Maryland by 1.4 (28-26), edge +2.9; PT mean -0.8 / median -0.1, SD 3.3; PT rows 26/41 Maryland (63%).
1:00	Northern Illinois at Georgia State	GAST -10.5 / 56.5	Northern Illinois +10.5	49	SP+ Georgia State by 2.6 (28-26), edge -7.9; PT unavailable. Georgia State leads early in offensive PPA and success rate.
1:00	Notre Dame at Purdue	ND -27.5 (DK) / -28 (Bovada) / 57.5	No bet at -27.5	47	SP+ Notre Dame by 26.3 (41-15), edge +1.4; PT unavailable. Red Sheet lists Notre Dame — the spread sits a touch high.

BEST THIS WINDOWIllinois +26.5/+27 — 63Maryland +1.5 — 57Wake Forest +13.5 — 57

2:00 – 4:00 PM CT WINDOW20 GAMES

CT	MATCHUP	MARKET	BEST CURRENT READ	CONF.	EVIDENCE / RULING
2:00	Central Arkansas at Florida State	FSU -45.5 / 63.5	Central Arkansas +45.5	48	SP+ Florida State by 40.7 (48-7), edge -4.8; PT unavailable; CFBD split unavailable. Huge favorite with no useful value proposition.
2:00	Hawaii at Wyoming	HAW -2.5 / 43.5	Hawaii -2.5, no chase	57	SP+ Hawaii by 5.5 (27-21), edge -3.0; PT mean -4.2 / median -3.8, SD 4.4; PT rows 27/41 Hawaii (66%).
2:30	Boise State at Western Michigan	BOIS -7.5 / 49.5–50	Western Michigan +7.5 — thin	51	SP+ Boise State by 7.1 (29-21) against a market of 7.5 — a 0.4-point margin, effectively a push; PT mean -3.8 vs line -7.0, SD 5.0, 30/40 rows on Western Michigan (75%). Model and tracker disagree on a razor-thin SP+ gap.
2:30	Connecticut at Miami-OH	M-OH -3.5 / 51.5–52	UConn +3.5	59	SP+ Miami-OH by 1.7 (26-25), edge -1.8; PT mean +1.0 / median +2.3, SD 4.5; PT rows 31/40 UConn (78%). UConn has the better defensive havoc.
2:30	Gardner-Webb at Marshall	MRSH -23.5 / 52.5	Gardner-Webb +23.5	47	SP+ Marshall by 20.6 (39-18), edge -2.9; PT unavailable; CFBD split unavailable.
2:30	Iowa at Michigan	MICH -5.5 / 38–38.5	Iowa +5.5	61	SP+ Michigan by 0.3 (23-23), edge -5.2; PT mean +2.9 / median +3.5, SD 4.0; PT rows 31/40 Iowa (78%). Iowa leads early in offensive PPA and success rate.
2:30	New Mexico at New Mexico State	UNM -11.5 (DK) / -11 (Bovada) / 48.5	New Mexico -11/-11.5	60	SP+ New Mexico by 18.0 (34-16), edge -6.8; PT mean -14.9 / median -14.1, SD 5.3; PT rows 30/41 New Mexico (73%). New Mexico has the better defensive success allowed and havoc.
2:30	Oklahoma at Georgia	UGA -13.5 / 44–44.5	Oklahoma +13.5	58	SP+ Georgia by 13.1 (31-18), edge -0.4; PT mean +10.1 / median +10.0, SD 5.1; PT rows 30/41 Oklahoma (73%). Red Sheet lists Georgia -13.5 — the number sits right on the projection.
2:30	Ole Miss at Florida	FLA -3.5 / 59–59.5	Pass — layers disagree	48	SP+ Florida by 4.7 (30-25), edge +1.2 — the model edge sits on the favorite; PT mean -0.7 / median -0.3, SD 4.2; PT rows 33/40 Ole Miss (83%) with the outright picks split 20–20. Capper Insights and TheRX both leaned Florida. Three layers, two directions.
2:30	Robert Morris at Buffalo	BUF -28.5 / 46.5	No bet at -28.5	47	SP+ Buffalo by 26.9 (34-7), edge -1.6; PT unavailable; CFBD split unavailable.
2:30	Stonehill at Ohio	OHIO -33.5 / 53.5	Ohio -33.5, no chase	47	SP+ Ohio by 36.6 (40-3), edge +3.1; PT unavailable; CFBD split unavailable.
2:30	TCU at UCF	TCU -3 / 48.5	No bet at -3	46	SP+ TCU by 3.2 (26-23), edge -0.2; PT unavailable. TCU leads early in offensive PPA; no model separation.
2:30	Utah at Iowa State	UTAH -7.5 / 47.5	No bet at -7.5	55	SP+ Utah by 8.7 (29-20), edge -1.2; PT mean -8.2 / median -9.5, SD 4.3; PT rows 24/41 Utah (59%). Red Sheet lists Utah.
2:30	William & Mary at Duke	DUKE -44.5 / 62.5	No bet at -44.5	46	SP+ Duke by 43.3 (51-7), edge -1.2; PT unavailable; CFBD split unavailable.
3:00	Houston at Georgia Southern	HOU -17.5 (DK) / -17 (Bovada) / 56.5	Georgia Southern +17.5	57	SP+ Houston by 16.0 (35-19), edge +1.2; PT mean -15.3 / median -15.8, SD 5.1; PT rows 28/41 Georgia Southern (68%). Houston leads early in offensive PPA and success rate.
3:00	NC Central at East Carolina	CFBD line unavailable	Winner lean only — no ATS bet	46	SP+ East Carolina by 29.4 (42-12); spread unavailable; PT unavailable; CFBD split unavailable.
3:15	Vanderbilt at Auburn	AUB -9.5 / 55.5	Vanderbilt +9.5	63	SP+ Auburn by 4.3 (28-24), edge -5.2; PT mean +3.2 / median +3.9, SD 5.0; PT rows 38/40 Vanderbilt (95%). Gold Sheet and Bondi both list Vanderbilt +10.
4:00	Nebraska at Michigan State	NEB -5.5 (DK) / -6 (Bovada) / 48.5–49	Nebraska -5.5, no chase	50	SP+ Nebraska by 9.7 (31-21), edge -3.9; PT mean -4.5 / median -4.0, SD 4.4; PT rows conflict 26/41 Michigan State (63%). Bondi lists Michigan State +5.5.
4:00	USF at Bowling Green	USF -17.5 / 56.5	USF -17.5, no chase	52	SP+ USF by 21.4 (37-15), edge +3.9; PT mean -21.9 vs line -17.5, SD 6.2, 32/40 rows on USF (80%). The favorite finally clears its number now that the CFBD line is in.
4:00	Wisconsin at Penn State	PSU -10 / 44–44.5	Penn State -10	63	SP+ Penn State by 16.5 (32-15), edge +6.5; PT mean +14.9 / median +15.0, SD 3.7; PT rows 37/40 Penn State (93%). Red Sheet lists Penn State — roster check still required.

BEST THIS WINDOWVanderbilt +9.5 — 63Penn State -10 — 63Iowa +5.5 — 61

5:00 – 7:00 PM CT WINDOW22 GAMES

CT	MATCHUP	MARKET	BEST CURRENT READ	CONF.	EVIDENCE / RULING
5:00	Delaware at Virginia	UVA -19.5 (DK) / -20 (Bovada) / 52.5	No bet at -19.5	48	SP+ Virginia by 21.2 (37-16), edge +1.4; PT mean +19.3 / median +19.3, SD 5.2; PT rows 23/41 Delaware (56%). Bondi lists Virginia -19 and Red Sheet -20.5.
5:00	Incarnate Word at Texas State	TXST -30.5 / 64.5	Incarnate Word +30.5	49	SP+ Texas State by 22.5 (44-22), edge -8.0; PT unavailable; CFBD split unavailable.
5:00	James Madison at Old Dominion	JMU -6 / 44.5	JMU -6, no chase	58	SP+ JMU by 10.7 (29-19), edge -4.7; PT mean -8.4 / median -8.0, SD 4.9; PT rows 27/41 JMU (66%). Red Sheet 89 / Pointwise 5 / Power Plays Strong all align on JMU. Wind is the total question: 14 mph (Action) vs 30–38 mph gusts (NWS) — recheck, since strong wind argues Under 44.5.
5:00	Long Island at Florida International	CFBD line unavailable	Winner lean only — no ATS bet	46	SP+ FIU by 38.1 (42-4); spread unavailable; PT unavailable; CFBD split unavailable.
5:30	Central Michigan at Miami-FL	CFBD line unavailable	Winner lean only — no ATS bet	46	SP+ Miami-FL by 40.6 (44-3); spread unavailable; PT unavailable; CFBD split unavailable.
5:30	UL-Lafayette at Charlotte	CFBD line unavailable	Winner lean only — no ATS bet	46	SP+ UL-Lafayette by 14.4 (35-21); spread unavailable; PT unavailable; CFBD split unavailable.
5:45	Missouri at Mississippi State	MSST -6 / 58.5	Missouri +6, no chase	56	SP+ Missouri by 0.5 (27-27), edge -6.5; PT mean +5.8 / median +3.7, SD 7.0; PT rows 23/41 Missouri (56%). Mississippi State leads early in offensive PPA and success rate.
6:00	Kansas State at Cincinnati	KSU -6.5 (DK) / -6 (Bovada) / 55.5	Cincinnati +6.5	59	SP+ Kansas State by 3.8 (30-26), edge +2.5; PT mean -4.1 / median -3.8, SD 3.3; PT rows 31/41 Cincinnati (76%). Kansas State has the better defensive success allowed.
6:00	Kennesaw State at Arkansas State	ARST -6.5 / 52.5–53	Kennesaw State +6.5	58	SP+ Arkansas State by 5.5 (30-24), edge -1.0; PT mean +4.0 / median +4.4, SD 3.6; PT rows 30/41 Kennesaw State (73%).
6:00	Mercyhurst at Western Kentucky	WKU -40.5 / 56.5	Mercyhurst +40.5	48	SP+ Western Kentucky by 34.1 (44-10), edge -6.4; PT unavailable; CFBD split unavailable.
6:00	Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	JXST -7 / 51.5	Jacksonville State -7, no chase	50	SP+ Jacksonville State by 18.2 (37-18), edge +11.2; PT unavailable. Widest SP+-vs-market gap on the card, with no PT confirmation.
6:00	Oklahoma State at West Virginia	WVU -1.5 (DK) / -2 (Bovada) / 61–61.5	No bet — model conflict	50	SP+ Oklahoma State by 2.4 (28-26), edge -4.2; PT mean +6.6 vs line +2.0, SD 3.9, 35/40 rows on West Virginia (88%) on both the winner and the spread; Capper Insights took Oklahoma State +2.5. Model families point opposite ways at a near-pick’em price.
6:00	South Carolina at Alabama	ALA -12.5 / 54–54.5	South Carolina +12.5	52	SP+ Alabama by 9.1 (30-21), edge -3.4; PT mean +15.2 / median +14.4, SD 4.3; PT rows conflict 30/40 Alabama (75%). Red Sheet lists Alabama -12.5 — price controls.
6:00	Southern Miss at Tulane	TUL -18.5 (DK) / -19 (Bovada) / 52.5–53	Southern Miss +18.5	48	SP+ Tulane by 16.0 (35-19), edge -2.8; PT mean +19.9 / median +19.5, SD 5.5; PT rows 22/41 Tulane (54%).
6:30	Appalachian State at NC State	CFBD line unavailable	App State +14 — line unverified	58	SP+ NC State by 13.8 (34-21); PT mean +15.9 / median +15.0, SD 6.4; PT rows 41/41 App State (100%). Gold Sheet lists App State +14 — a slight projection cushion, not a top play.
6:30	Arizona at Washington State	ARIZ -10.5 / 48–48.5	Arizona -10.5, no chase	50	SP+ Arizona by 12.9 (31-18), edge -2.4; PT mean -8.5 / median -8.2, SD 4.5; PT rows conflict 26/41 Washington State (63%).
6:30	Houston Christian at North Texas	UNT -38.5 / 60.5	Houston Christian +38.5	48	SP+ North Texas by 33.5 (45-11), edge -5.0; PT unavailable; CFBD split unavailable.
6:30	Oregon at USC	ORE -3 / 61.5	USC +3	57	SP+ Oregon by 0.3 (30-29), edge +2.7; PT mean -0.1 / median -2.0, SD 6.7; PT rows 26/41 USC (63%). Red Sheet lists Oregon; CBS computer pick is USC +3. USC leads early in offensive PPA and success rate.
6:30	Texas A&M at LSU	LSU -8.5 (DK) / -7.5 (Bovada) / 51.5–52	Texas A&M +7.5/+8.5	62	SP+ LSU by 4.4 (27-23), edge -3.6; PT mean +3.6 / median +4.1, SD 3.8; PT rows 38/40 Texas A&M (95%). LSU has the better defensive success allowed.
6:30	Troy at Utah State	USU -3 / 47–47.5	Troy +3, no chase	47	SP+ Troy by 0.6 (26-25), edge -3.6; PT unavailable. Troy leads early in offensive PPA and has the better defensive havoc.
7:00	Florida Atlantic at UL-Monroe	FAU -12.5 / 58.5	Florida Atlantic -12.5, no chase	53	SP+ Florida Atlantic by 18.1 (38-19), edge -5.6; PT mean -10.6 / median -9.4, SD 4.9; PT rows conflict 30/41 UL-Monroe (73%).
7:00	Tulsa at Arkansas	ARK -7 / 50.5–51	Tulsa +7	52	SP+ Arkansas by 3.5 (30-27), edge -3.5; PT mean +5.5 / median +6.7, SD 11.2; PT rows 22/41 Tulsa (54%). Gold Sheet lists Arkansas -7.

BEST THIS WINDOWTexas A&M +7.5/+8.5 — 62Cincinnati +6.5 — 59Kennesaw State +6.5 — 58

8:00 PM CT AND LATER WINDOW7 GAMES

CT	MATCHUP	MARKET	BEST CURRENT READ	CONF.	EVIDENCE / RULING
8:00	Massachusetts at Sacramento State	MASS -4.5 / 48.5	Sacramento State +4.5, no chase	54	SP+ Sacramento State by 1.6 (25-24), edge +6.1; PT mean -3.5 / median -2.5, SD 10.1; PT rows 24/41 Sacramento State (59%).
8:00	Missouri State at SMU	SMU -34.5 / 59.5–60	Missouri State +34.5	60	SP+ SMU by 31.8 (43-11), edge -2.7; PT mean +30.6 / median +31.4, SD 6.9; PT rows 31/40 Missouri State (78%). FCS roster mismatch widens model uncertainty.
8:00	Oregon State at UTEP	ORST -10.5 / 56–56.5	Oregon State -10.5, no chase	49	SP+ Oregon State by 14.7 (33-18), edge -4.2; PT mean -10.4 / median -10.2, SD 6.9; PT rows 23/41 UTEP (56%).
9:00	Rice at Fresno State	FRES -13.5 (DK) / -13 (Bovada) / 44–44.5	Fresno State -13/-13.5	60	SP+ Fresno State by 16.9 (32-15), edge +3.6; PT mean +15.8 / median +16.6, SD 4.8; PT rows 31/40 Fresno State (78%). Bondi lists Rice +13.5 against the model side.
9:30	Air Force at Nevada	AF -6 (DK) / -5.5 (Bovada) / 50.5	Nevada +5.5	58	SP+ Air Force by 4.3 (27-23), edge +1.5; PT mean -1.6 / median -2.9, SD 6.8; PT rows 29/41 Nevada (71%). Air Force leads early in offensive PPA and success rate.
9:30	Georgia Tech at Stanford	GT -3.5 (DK) / -3 (Bovada) / 48.5	Georgia Tech -3.5/-3	60	SP+ Georgia Tech by 9.3 (30-20), edge -6.1; PT mean -5.4 / median -5.8, SD 4.2; PT rows 30/41 Georgia Tech (73%). CFBD profile fairly even.
10:00	Minnesota at Washington	WASH -10.5 / 45.5–46	No bet at -10.5	55	SP+ Washington by 9.4 (28-19), edge -1.1; PT mean +9.2 / median +10.1, SD 5.7; PT rows 23/41 Minnesota (56%). CFBD profile fairly even.

BEST THIS WINDOWMissouri State +34.5 — 60Fresno State -13/-13.5 — 60Georgia Tech -3.5/-3 — 60

FULL-BOARD PRIORITY TIERS — TOP PROCESS SCORES

Illinois +26.5/+27 — 63Vanderbilt +9.5 — 63Penn State -10 — 63Texas A&M +7.5/+8.5 — 62Iowa +5.5 — 61New Mexico -11/-11.5 — 60Missouri State +34.5 — 60Fresno State -13/-13.5 — 60Georgia Tech -3.5/-3 — 60UConn +3.5 — 59Cincinnati +6.5 — 59Kennesaw State +6.5 — 58Nevada +5.5 — 58Oklahoma +13.5 — 58App State +14 — 58JMU -6 — 58Baylor -9.5 — 57Wake Forest +13.5 — 57Maryland +1.5 — 57Hawaii -2.5 — 57Georgia Southern +17.5 — 57USC +3 — 57

This is a full-card discovery board, not a 22-play betting card. v7.6R reduces it to 3–5 releases after: Saturday injury/availability confirmations; fresh PredictionTracker dispersion; Capper Insights last-30 CFB rankings, weighted units and game consensus; two-book prices with timestamps; final weather (especially Boston College, Old Dominion and Minnesota); and any new verified Hank post (a sharp-money list stays a market signal; a play he posts as his own carries the veto). Do not convert a strong favorite win projection into an ATS bet without a price edge.

RECOMMENDED NEXT PASS

Friday eveningExact two-book quotes with timestamps on the five provisional candidates.

Saturday 8 AM CTCapper Insights, service plays, injury/availability confirmations and model-dispersion refresh.

Saturday 10 AM CTFinal early-window releases.

Thirty minutes before each later windowReprice and release only markets still above their buy-to gates.

BOARD TWO · FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25 — SETTLED CARD

FRIDAY MLB CARD & NCAAF READS

Yesterday’s card, kept for reference. Houston–Athletics Over 8.5 led; Cardinals and Guardians carried moneyline dog value.

CURRENT BETTING CARD — 7:47 A.M. CT

RANK	MARKET	CURRENT PRICE	PE SCORE*	STATUS	BUY TO / PASS
1	Houston–Athletics Over 8.5	8.5 · -108 max	79	PRICE-QUALIFIED	Buy 8.5 through -108; pass at 9.5
2	Navy -6.5 at UAB	-6.5 (-110)	58	CONDITIONAL WATCH	Buy -6.5; watch -7; pass -7.5
3	Northwestern +21 at Indiana	+21	47	WATCH	No bet at +21 — SP+ now projects Indiana by 20.6, so the number no longer clears

No official RELEASE — lineups unconfirmed across all 17 MLB games, the authenticated capper layer unavailable and Navy's quarterback status open. The score is a process score, not a win probability. The Week 4 full-card college deep dive re-scored all five Friday games: Navy -6.5 is the best matchup edge on the card but a conditional watch only at 58, and Northwestern +21 drops off the price-qualified board because SP+ now projects Indiana by 20.6 — roughly the number itself. Army–Temple, Howard–Rutgers, Northwestern–Indiana and Clemson–California all grade as no-bet at the current number.

COMPLETE MLB LEDGER — 17 GAMES (ALL TIMES ET)

1:05 CT58

Cubs–Red Sox G1

No bet — model/market ML conflict (model BOS, market CHC); total looks stale at 6.5

PASS

4:10 CT66

Orioles–Yankees G1

Orioles value dog (+119, model 58.2% win); Over 6.5 model edge offset by in-blowing wind — no total play

WATCH

6:05 CT64

Cubs–Red Sox G2

Red Sox mild ML lean (+102, model 54.6%); total stale at 6.5 — no total play

WATCH

6:40 CT65

Pirates–Tigers

Pirates thin ML/Over 7.5 lean (~2-3% edge); watch only

WATCH

6:40 CT61

Rays–Phillies

No bet — Phillies favored both markets; TB total read (6.5) looks stale

PASS

6:45 CT60

Mets–Nationals

No bet — ML conflict; market favors Mets (-132), model favors Nationals (53.2%)

PASS

7:05 CT63

Orioles–Yankees G2

Efficiently priced; model and market align on Yankees — no lean

WATCH

7:07 CT68

Reds–Blue Jays

Over 7.5 edge thinned to ~2% on today's numbers — watch, not price-qualified

WATCH

7:10 CT63

Braves–Marlins

No bet — model and market agree, no lean either side

PASS

7:40 CT66

Guardians–Royals

Royals value dog (+120, model 52.2% win); lowest YRFI on the slate (41.5%)

WATCH

7:40 CT65

Rockies–White Sox

Rockies modest dog value at +195 or better

WATCH

7:40 CT70

Cardinals–Brewers

Cardinals notable dog value (+161 or better) — model 47.8% vs market-implied ~38%

WATCH

8:10 CT71

Rangers–Twins

Rangers ML lean with deGrom (6.52 K proj); -108 or better

WATCH

9:40 CT63

Diamondbacks–Padres

Diamondbacks thin dog value (+119); model 49.6% vs market-implied ~46%

WATCH

9:40 CT79

Astros–Athletics

Over 8.5; -108 max — Sutter Health Park +23% Runs, wind blowing out

PRICE-QUALIFIED

10:10 CT62

Angels–Mariners

No bet — efficiently priced, model and market align

PASS

10:15 CT60

Dodgers–Giants

No bet — Giants dog value too thin to release; LAD price too high

PASS

All listed plays are provisional until starting lineups are confirmed. Ballpark Pal showed Lineups Final: No across all 17 games at the 8:57 AM CT run, so no MLB position is released. Re-scanning today's Game Sims, Park Factors, Strikeout Center and HR Zone sheets: Houston–Athletics Over 8.5 is the clear standout (Sutter Health Park's warm, wind-out day game), while Cardinals and Guardians show real moneyline dog value against the market. Several games (Cubs–Sox G1, Orioles–Yankees G1, Rays–Phillies) show a Ballpark Pal total quoted well below the combined team run projections — treated as a stale/placeholder read pending final lineups, not chased as an Over. All times ET.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME SHEETS — 5 GAMES

3:00 PM CTARMY AT TEMPLEPASS

BEST BET: Lean Army — pass ATS at the current number

+SP+ makes Army 4.3 better (30-26) against a market-implied 4.8 — an edge of -0.5, below a meaningful bet threshold.

+PredictionTracker: mean -3.5 / median -3.5, SD 3.5; posted forecast rows split 22/41 Temple (54%) to 19/41 Army (46%). Those rows are not 41 independent model families.

+CFBD Weeks 1–3: Army leads early in offensive PPA and in offensive success rate.

−Gold Sheet lists Temple +3 while Power Plays carries no play — the publication layer is split.

−Temple's quarterback uncertainty prevents an aggressive dog position.

No bet at the current number. Process confidence 47/100 — a small Army lean only at a favorable price.

6:00 PM CTHOWARD AT RUTGERSPASS

BEST BET: Rutgers — pass ATS at the current number

+SP+ makes Rutgers 41.7 better (48-6) against a market-implied 42.2 — an edge of -0.5.

+PredictionTracker is unavailable for this matchup.

+CFBD advanced split unavailable in the pull.

−SP+ only: a large favorite with no price-backed bet and no independent confirmation.

No bet at the current number. Process confidence 46/100.

6:00 PM CTNAVY AT UABWATCH

BEST BET: Navy -6.5 — conditional only

+SP+ makes Navy 12.2 better (34-22) against a market-implied 6.5 — an edge of -5.7.

+PredictionTracker: mean -6.9 / median -7.8, SD 6.7; posted forecast rows 26/41 Navy (63%).

+CFBD Weeks 1–3: Navy leads early in offensive PPA and in offensive success rate.

−Gold Sheet lists Navy -7 and Power Plays carries no play — the publication layer adds no conviction.

−Woodson's ankle status remains unresolved.

Playable only if the current shop price matches or improves on the quoted market; no chase. Process confidence 58/100 — the best matchup edge on the Friday college card, but not yet the best executable bet.

7:00 PM CTNORTHWESTERN AT INDIANAPASS

BEST BET: Indiana — pass ATS at the current number

+SP+ makes Indiana 20.6 better (35-14) against a market-implied 20.5 — an edge of +0.1.

+PredictionTracker: mean +18.7 / median +19.5, SD 6.9; posted forecast rows 22/41 Northwestern (54%).

+CFBD Weeks 1–3: Indiana leads early in offensive PPA and in offensive explosiveness.

−Gold Sheet lists Indiana, but Power Plays favors Northwestern +15 in the second half — the spread is stretched and the second-half fade is an explicit alternative.

No bet at the current number. Process confidence 47/100 — the +21 gate no longer clears the model projection.

9:30 PM CTCLEMSON AT CALIFORNIAPASS

BEST BET: Lean Clemson — pass ATS at the current number

+SP+ makes Clemson 3.8 better (27-23) against a market-implied 2.5 — an edge of -1.3.

+PredictionTracker: mean -2.5 / median -2.8, SD 5.3; posted forecast rows 21/41 Clemson (51%) — effectively a coin flip.

+CFBD Weeks 1–3: California leads early in offensive PPA and in offensive success rate.

−Gold Sheet lists Clemson, but the newsletter projects a tight game near pick'em — the lean is price-sensitive.

No bet at the current number. Process confidence 54/100.

KEY MODEL DETAILS

⚑Army–Temple: SP+ makes Army 4.3 better against a market-implied 4.8 — an edge of -0.5. No bet at the current number.

⚑Navy–UAB: strong model and matchup support against quarterback uncertainty and public concentration. Conditional only at -6.5.

⚑Clemson–Cal: SP+ makes Clemson 3.8 better against a market-implied 2.5 and posted forecast rows split 21/41 — effectively a coin flip. No bet at the current number.

⚑Northwestern–Indiana: SP+ now projects Indiana by 20.6 against a market-implied 20.5, so +21 no longer clears and drops off the price-qualified board.

⚑Howard–Rutgers: SP+ only. No PredictionTracker coverage and no price-backed bet on a 42-point favorite.

⚑Orioles–Yankees G1: Ballpark Pal projects Baltimore to outscore New York (4.80 to 3.69) and gives the Orioles a 58.2% win probability against a market implying roughly 46% — a real value dog, though Yankee Stadium's forecast in-blowing wind argues against also chasing the Over.

⚑Rangers–Twins: Ballpark Pal favors Texas (59.6% win) well above the market's roughly 52% implied on deGrom's start. Watch only.

⚑Guardians–Royals: Ballpark Pal makes Kansas City the value side (52.2% model win vs. ~45.5% market-implied) and shows the slate's lowest YRFI probability (41.5%) at Kauffman.

⚑Cardinals–Brewers: Ballpark Pal gives St. Louis 47.8% to win against a market implying only ~38% at +161 — the widest moneyline gap on the slate.

⚑Dodgers–Giants: the Dodgers win projection is strong but the current moneyline (-366) exceeds the model's own fair price. Pass the moneyline.

⚑Cubs–Red Sox G1 and Orioles–Yankees G1/Rays–Phillies: today's Ballpark Pal total reads (6.5) sit well below each game's combined team run projection (8-9 runs) — flagged as stale pending final lineups rather than played as an Over.

Authenticated model and consensus layers came from Ballpark Pal at the morning run. The Capper Insights and X authenticated tabs were unavailable, so the capper component is zero and no capper-confirmed release exists. The missing PredictionTracker and Capper layer is assessed as the single combined -5 completeness penalty under the clarified v7.6R rule — it is not double-counted.

BOTTOM LINE

If betting immediately, the only clean small position is Houston–Athletics Over 8.5 — price-qualified and still waiting on confirmed lineups. On the college card nothing clears the gates: Navy -6.5 is the best matchup edge but a conditional watch only, and Northwestern +21 has fallen off the price-qualified board now that SP+ projects Indiana by 20.6.

Navy -6.5 is the best matchup edge on the college card but not yet the best executable bet: Woodson's status and the move through -6.5 are the blockers.

Sutter Health Park's warm temps and wind blowing out make Houston–Athletics Over 8.5 the cleanest MLB total on today's board. Several other games (Cubs–Sox G1, Orioles–Yankees G1, Rays–Phillies) show a Ballpark Pal total quoted well below the combined run projection — treated as stale rather than chased as an Over.

No NFL games are scheduled Friday, September 25. No NFL wagers enter today's portfolio.

Maximum conditional exposure is 1.50u: 0.75u Houston–Athletics Over 8.5, 0.50u Northwestern +21, and 0.25u Navy -6.5 only if Woodson is confirmed active. No parlay — the board does not carry enough fully released, independent legs.

Zero fully gated releases yet — maximum exposure stays small until lineups, personnel and the capper layer verify.