MCS META-CONSENSUS / OUTLIER AUDIT
Computers vs Market vs Weekly Information
Andrew Percival's CFB Metrics Consensus · zero independent-model weight · diagnostic layer only
LAST CAPTURE
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WORKBOOK EXPORTRatings from the workbook · projections from the published posts
Tableau Public serves the viz behind a WAF challenge and its CSV endpoints are closed, so the values cannot be scraped. Open the CFB Metrics Consensus workbook, use Download → Data, and drop that CSV here — the capture then joins it to the ingested board, the market and PredictionTracker.
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THE FOUR SIGNALS
SIGNALMEANINGACTIONNOW
MCS AND MARKET MOVE TOGETHERNew information is broadly confirmedRaise stability, not model weight0
MCS MOVES, MARKET DOES NOTPossible early value or model overreactionDeep-dive candidate0
MARKET MOVES, MCS DOES NOTPersonnel, sharp action or matchup informationFind the missing cause0
MCS AND MARKET MOVE OPPOSITELYGenuine disagreementAdversarial review required0
SLOW-MOVING DOG WARNING0
None triggered this capture.
ADVERSARIAL FLAG — 3.0+ VS OUR MEDIAN0
None triggered this capture.
DATA-COMPOSITION CHANGE0
None triggered this capture.
MATCHUP REVIEW — 3.0+ VS MARKET0
None triggered this capture.
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DIAGNOSTIC LAYER — ZERO MODEL WEIGHT
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